Something Worth Knowing 2024: A sneak peek at the upcoming presidential election
President Joe Biden speaks at a recent press conference. (Photo: @WhiteHouse/Twitter)
It might seem like the next U.S. presidential election is far away, but for Democrats and Republicans alike, the balance of power in 2024 is already beginning to take shape.
While former President Donald Trump is the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, to officially launch their campaign for the White House, it’s unclear who his opponent will be or if he will even manage to win the Republican primary.
It may have taken 15 tries, but House Republicans managed to narrowly elect Leader Kevin McCarthy. The victory came after a number of concessions were made to some of the most extreme and radical Republican members of Congress, including Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz. It’s hard to say what many of these concessions are, considering they were negotiated and agreed upon behind closed doors.
In what was likely a relief for New York Rep. George Santos, McCarthy’s first order of business was gutting the Office of Congressional Ethics, an act that will likely be symbolic of the House Republican majority in the 118th Congress.
Former President Donald Trump’s third consecutive bid for the White House is off to an uncharacteristically quiet start.
Trump most recently held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on New Year's Eve, alongside wife Melania. You may not have heard much about it considering no major news organizations — including Fox News — felt compelled to send a reporter to cover it.
But Trump could very well find himself facing a former White House ally in the Republican primary. Two weeks ago, on the second anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection on the U.S. Capitol, former National Security Advisor John Bolton announced he was mulling plans to challenge his former boss.
Bolton, whose public falling out with Trump made headlines over contradicting claims over who made the decision for him to leave the White House, has a fraught history of being a war hawk and staunch supporter of the invasion of Iraq.
The Democratic primary schedule is set to become clearer next month, as Feb. 1 marks the deadline for early states to change the dates of their primaries.
So far, it remains unclear whether 80-year-old President Joe Biden will pursue a second term.
Biden has started the new year embroiled in controversy, after the discovery of classified documents from his time as Vice President in his personal library. Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed Special Counsel Robert Hur to conduct an investigation into how the classified material made its way to Biden’s home.
SENATE
California Sen. Dianne Feinstein might be 89, but she has no plans of leaving her post anytime soon. That doesn’t mean her Democratic colleagues aren’t thinking about her successor.
Rep. Katie Porter announced last week that she will run for Feinstein's seat in 2024, which was quickly endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Meanwhile in Michigan, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow has announced she won’t be seeking a fifth term. Stabenow, who is third-in-line to the Democratic leadership, is leaving politics to care for her 96-year-old mother.
Stabenow’s announcement, which came as a surprise to Democrats, all but guarantees the open seat in Michigan will be a battleground in 2024.
Winners will serve until Jan. 2031, aside from one who will complete Republican Sen. Ben Sasse’s term until 2027. Sasse officially stepped away from politics this month after accepting an offer to become president of the University of Florida. Pete Ricketts has been appointed interim senator. It’s unclear whether Ricketts will run for the duration of his term in 2024.
More than half of senators have declared their intention to run for re-election in 2024. Of the 17 incumbents, 12 are Democrats, four are Republicans, and one is an Independent.
Even after gaining a seat in 2022, it’s looking like an uphill battle for Democrats to hold the Senate in 2024. They’ll be defending 23 of the 33 seats up for grabs, with three Democratic senators serving in states won by Trump — Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia — in both 2016 and 2020.
HOUSE
Looking ahead to the race for the majority of the 435 seats in the House, it’s not just Katie Porter who's retiring her post. West Virginia Republican Rep. Alex Mooney will also be seeking a promotion to the Senate.
Democrat Harley Rouda, a former California congressman, is set to run for Porter’s open seat in 2024. Republican Scott Baugh hopes to be the GOP nominee for the second time in a row after narrowly losing to Porter in 2022.
So far, two Republicans have thrown their names in the hat to succeed Mooney.
Political newcomer Alexander Gaaserud is running on a double-issue campaign of combating the drug crisis and protecting the Second Amendment.
His opponent, Riley Moore, has experience as a state lawmaker. Moore also represented former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as part of the Podesta group from 2013 to 2017.
Meanwhile, one current House Republican can’t seem to catch a break.
As of Jan. 12, seven House Republicans have called on N.Y. Rep. George Santos to resign as a Member of Congress for lying about, well, just about everything in his past, like being Jewish, his education, and being an early COVID-19 survivor.
Santos has told reporters he has no plans to resign, and will leave the decision up to voters in 2024.